No continent for old men

Written by Sentletse Diakanyo & Brendah Nyakudyah
Monday, 19 December 2011 11:20

The democratisation of Africa is a longed-for dream that promises to deliver the continent from an old-fashioned breed of leaders to a youthful new generation conscious of the imperatives of modern times. Since the wave of independence from the clutches of colonialism in the 1960s, many of the states savouring the fruits of freedom have been led by grey-haired men. Most of these senior citizens saw themselves as an extension of the identity of their respective nations.

Their tenures are characterised by an inability and unwillingness to adapt to changing political circumstances and respond to the needs of their people. Deeply rooted in the patriarchal system of governance within which despotic tendencies emerge, these men have entrenched themselves in the conscience and very fibre of their nation and every sphere of life. Their image exists in tandem with that of their own countries. It is generally in the nature of these leaders, whose egos are intrinsically linked to their tenure of office and ability to rule over their people with an iron fist, to deny their people their democratic freedoms. It is often in these countries that you find periodic pretence of democracy – farcical elections that are held as ego-boosting exercises for the authoritarian leader.

The winds of change

2011 has been a year of change. There has been a shift from the old guard, as a new generation agitates for change. The Tunisian Revolution inspired the Arab people in Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco and Libya to rise against their authoritarian regimes. But with all this upheaval around us in the name of democracy, interesting observations arise. A look at the history of these countries reveals considerable economic strength despite a lack of democratic rights. Could it be that democracy in a nation still struggling with development is not necessarily the gateway to sustainable economic opportunity?

Voter apathy in Egypt

The fall of Egypt’s strongman Hosni Mubarak, after a brutal crackdown on peaceful and unarmed protesters, promised a brighter future for the land of the pharaohs. The people of Egypt entrusted military generals who were once loyal to Mubarak to safeguard their freedom and lead the country towards a multi-party democratic election.

But for the Egyptian people the Arab Spring has swiftly turned into a cold winter of discontent. The promise of democratic freedoms that were suppressed by the Mubarak regime quickly faded under the authoritarian rule of the generals. The people of Egypt appear to be in a much more precarious situation following the revolution than they were during Mubarak’s rule. As Afropolitan was going to print, reports from Egypt revealed arrests similar to crackdowns during Mubarak’s reign. Thousands of Egyptians protested in Tahrir Square after the detention of Alaa El Fattah, a high-profile blogger, by military prosecutors. It would seem the military faction that was meant to be a transition measure is settling in for the long haul. This could spell chaos and dismay for the Egyptians, who fought hard for their dream of democracy but are now faced with the reality of a military version of an autocratic rule.

Under Mubarak Egypt was flourishing economically. Similar to his Tunisian counterpart, Mubarak modernised the economy by implementing a number of meaningful entrepreneurial reforms that made it easier to start a business. In just five years the government eased the stringent requirements for business start ups, and the number of ventures increased. This in turn increased employment with, according to the International Monetary Fund, 2.4 million jobs created between 2004 and 2007. Under Mubarak tariffs and taxes were reduced, with a call for more transparency in government dealings, particularly in line with the national budget. Public enterprises were on track to become privatised, and the number of people living below the poverty line was significantly lower than countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Unfortunately the Egyptian economy took a severe beating during the month-long protests; it contracted by 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2011. Investors and tourists fled to safety, and local economic activity came to an abrupt halt. The economy at the moment is stuttering at growth levels of about 1.8 percent, much lower than projected growth of 3.5 percent for 2011/12.

Currently the people on the ground are fearful ahead of the elections and pessimistic about the economic woes not being addressed by anyone in particular. Many Egyptians have said they will boycott the upcoming elections and cite a lack of trust in the current rulers’ ability to conduct a free and fair election. Most criticism is aimed at the Security Council of the Armed Forces, which has been in power since Mubarak’s fall. Of particular concern are the military trials civilians continue to face. The admirable sacrifices of the people of Egypt appear to have gone to waste, hopefully not permanently.

Libya - a dim picture

The picture in Libya, where a benevolent yet authoritarian leader was recently overthrown, is also dim. The people of Libya enjoyed relative prosperity under Muammar Gaddafi. According to the Human Development Index drawn from the United Nations Development Programme’s 2010 Human Development Report Libya ranked first in human development, compared to the rest of Africa. The Mo Ibrahim Index for 2011 ranked Libya fifth in terms of human development. Under Gaddafi, the Libyan people had free education, free healthcare, free energy and interest-free loans; they were living in a debt-free country. Libya’s infrastructural development is ranked second-best in Africa, and the quality of the country’s education is ranked fourth-best in Africa. Even public management is ranked second. Libya under Gaddafi afforded women their rights. Almost all people of Libya had access to housing, something that cannot be claimed by most countries.

Gaddafi’s overthrow enjoyed an inordinate amount of support from the West – primarily because of economic, not humanitarian, interests. The threat of protracted insurgency by people loyal to Gaddafi looms large, in the process threatening the political and economic stability of this North African country. Libya’s national transitional council is faced with the daunting task of unifying different sectors with competing views. A new war could hit, and the presence of al-Qaeda elements within the ranks of country’s new rulers could betray the blind optimism of those who saw the end of Gaddafi rule as the beginning of an even better Libya.

Prosperity in the East

Looking beyond the continent, China is another example of authoritarian leadership that has lead to a prosperous economy. The rise of the middle class in China since the implementation of economic reforms in 1978 has been phenomenal. The centre of economic gravity is gradually shifting to the East. Economists forecast that within a few years, China will be the world’s biggest economy, ahead of the United States. Despite such economic successes, the people of China live under a government that respond with merciless brutality to those advocating for political reforms. Similar histories apply in Singapore, South Korea and Thailand.

Economic vs democratic Freedom

South Africa, which prides itself on the protection of basic human rights, has surprisingly not translated freedoms enshrined in the constitution into meaningful economic benefits for the people. The 2011 Mo Ibrahim Index on good governance shows that South Africa ranks below Egypt and Tunisia in terms of sustainable economic opportunity. The reasonable expectation is that there should be a direct correlation between political freedom and economic freedom. However, the scourge of corruption, particularly in South Africa, appears to be the primary impediment to sustainable economic opportunity. Existing within an economic environment that demands political connection would ordinarily hamper the majority of the people to prosper. The structural faults in the economy that have been inherited from the apartheid past also play a significant role in compromising the pace of economic emancipation.

As shown by the Arab Spring, a reasonable expectation of the people following the fall of a dictator is freedom – of speech, of the press, of association and all other democratic freedoms that all oppressed people of the world aspire to. Most importantly, there is an expectation of economic freedom.  

While it would seem the cry for democracy is the order of the day, each nation should choose a favourable political system according to the dictates of its economic imperatives. For it may be a plausible argument that people in developing countries need economic freedom more than democratic freedoms. The freedom to speak your mind has little significance when faced with the prospect of not being able to feed your children.

The pursuit of democracy cannot be a one-size-fits-all approach when countries under “loving tyrannies” seem to fare better, economically, than countries under democracy.